MELISSA BLOCK, host:
That wind that blew through Massachusetts and swept a Republican to victory is causing shivers among congressional Democrats looking ahead to midterm elections. The Democrats have now lost their filibuster-proof super majority in the Senate. What other losses might be in store?
We've asked Amy Walter to come in and read some political tea leaves for us. She's editor-in-chief of The Hotline, a daily political news service. Amy, welcome back.
Ms. AMY WALTER (Editor-in-Chief, The Hotline): Thank you.
BLOCK: When Scott Brown is seated, the Democrats will have a 59 to 41 majority in the Senate. Elections are still 10 months away. A lot can change, but if you had to guess, would you imagine that majority would slip, would erode still further?
Ms. WALTER: It's absolutely going to slip. The question now is just how far. Earlier this year we were thinking that Democrats were gonna be looking at a 60-plus majority. Now we have to really ratchet that back maybe even down to the low 50s. When you look at the most competitive races out there, in the Senate, almost all of them are held by Democrats. And so the idea now after Massachusetts that anything could be in play is now what's percolating around Washington.
In fact, there were reports today that Mike Pence, congressman from Indiana, pretty high profile and leadership on the Republican side is taking a look at and is being recruited in Indiana to run for United States Senate against Evan Bayh. Now, Evan Bayh's name hasn't been on anybody's target list for a long time. He has $12 million in the bank. He's pretty popular back home. Obviously he was a potential Democratic candidate for president, on the shortlist for vice president, but it's Indiana in a midterm election year. That could be a race that gets put into play and now suddenly we could be looking at Democrats defending 10 or more competitive seats and having a tough time picking up any of the Republican ones.
BLOCK: You would say, though, that Democrats would retain control of the Senate?
Ms. WALTER: At this point they still are favored to retain control of the Senate. You know, to lose the number of seats they need to lose, you know, would mean that not only would Republicans need to run the table, but Democrats do have some opportunities to pick up seats. There's an open seat in Missouri, in Ohio and in New Hampshire. Obviously New Hampshire and Ohio were strong states for President Obama, but Democrats in a bad year could lose those two.
BLOCK: Let's turn to the House side. Do you think we're going to see a number of Democrats looking at the results for Massachusetts saying, you know, I'm not going to run again - my time's up?
Ms. WALTER: Yeah, thanks, this was sort of the straw that broke the camel's back for me. I, in fact, I've been talking to Democrats before this election saying, when are we going to know how many more retirements are going to happen? And one said to me: Why don't you call me after the Massachusetts election?
The expectation, of course, is that there will be more retirements, especially from some longtime members who sit in conservative districts, folks who say, I've been here for a while. I've done what I needed to do. The prospect of going through a tough election and losing is not all that appealing to me. The question is: How many of those folks go and how many can Democrats persuade to stay for just one more term? That is a very tough task even for the best recruiters.
BLOCK: What would it take to flip control of the House?
Ms. WALTER: The Democrats would need to lose 41 seats and that seems like such a huge number, but remember in 1994, the last sort of big wave midterm election, Democrats lost 54 seats in the House. The problem with being in the majority right now for Democrats is not only do they control everything, so they get all the blame, but they've won so many seats over the course of 2006 and 2008 that they have a lot of vulnerabilities.
There are a lot of seats that they sit in today in the House that went for President Bush or went for John McCain in the last presidential election that are Republican by nature that have not performed like Republican districts. Many of them have never been in a situation like they're going to be in in 2010, in a bad political environment, a bad economic environment and with their own party in the White House. It's a very different scenario than many of them have ever had to face.
BLOCK: Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of The Hotline. Amy, thanks very much.
Ms. WALTER: Thank you.