ANDREA SEABROOK, host:
South Carolina, as first-in-the-South primary is considered pivotal for both parties. For the Republicans, it's always been a bellwether. Since 1980, the winner of the GOP primary has always gone on to win the nomination. For Democrats, next Saturday's contest is the first time where they will see a significant African-American vote.
NPR's Debbie Elliott joins us now from Columbia, South Carolina.
And Debbie, you've been looking at the exit polls. What do they tell you about why John McCain defeated Mike Huckabee and the rest of the Republican field?
DEBBIE ELLIOTT: This was a real test for conservative Republicans. Seven in ten of the Republican voters in South Carolina described themselves as conservatives. More than half of them were religious conservative. Now, Huckabee scored nearly 2-to-1 over McCain among that group. But it's not a monolithic group. So you saw other candidates like former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson, siphoning off some of Huckabee's base here.
One in four of the South Carolina Republicans were veterans. And McCain have the advantage there. He also did well among moderate Republicans and independent voters.
SEABROOK: The Republicans are now focusing on Florida. Its primary is January 29th. What's the electorate look like there?
ELLIOTT: Well, it's a big state. But you have a lot of these same groups. For example, religious conservatives, particularly strong in the panhandle, in the northern part of the state. You've also got a very strong military presence - a lot of bases in Florida. There are retired military there, a lot of veterans. And like we said, you know, that's where McCain, the former prisoner of war, does very well.
We should also note that Florida is a closed primary. You have to be a registered Republican to vote. So McCain is not going to be able to get that boost that he's gotten elsewhere from independents. It's also an expensive state. You know, it's a big state. You've got the Miami media market. That could benefit Mitt Romney. He alone in the Republican field has the financial wherewithal to run across the state.
SEABROOK: And Debbie, I know Rudy Giuliani has been focused on Florida for a long time.
ELLIOTT: Yes. He is strong there with his national security message. You know, there are also a lot of ports in Florida. There's also a large contingent of what you might call mainline GOP voters, the traditional small government fiscal conservatives. That's a group that Giuliani has targeted, as well as Romney. And we know that the former New York mayor has put all his eggs in the Florida basket. This is a decision that he was defending just this morning on ABC's "This Week."
Mr. RUDY GIULIANI (Former Republican Mayor, New York City; Republican Presidential Candidate): Florida is a microcosm of the country. It's a large state. This is a state that reflects America.
SEABROOK: Debbie, lets talk about the Democrats now. They're gearing up for a big fight in South Carolina this week. There's a big debate in Myrtle Beach tomorrow night, the primary is Saturday. The frontrunners, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, have had two contentious weeks with much made about the issue of race in the campaign. How does that play in South Carolina, where more than 50 percent of the Democratic electorate is black?
ELLIOTT: Well, there's clearly some frustration here. When you talk to African-American voters, they sort of roll their eyes and say, oh, please let's not go there again. But it's probably had some impact as well, you know? Late last year, Clinton was perceived to have the advantage here, and that has shifted some when you talk to the political observers. Some credit Obama's Iowa win for that. Clinton does have support here among traditional African-American leaders, whereas Obama is getting his traction among younger generations. In fact, you can see that divide tonight.
Obama is staging his own rally in Columbia - here this evening, at the same time the state NAACP is having a meeting across town. Obama clearly doesn't see the need to go court that traditional base. John Edwards will be at NAACP meeting, and in fact the Clinton campaign is sending a surrogate, former President Clinton adviser Vernon Jordan.
SEABROOK: I'm glad you mentioned John Edwards, Debbie, because he's - it's funny - the South is where he's supposed to get his - gain his traction but you're not mentioning him in those terms.
ELLIOTT: Well, you know, he doesn't seem to be getting anywhere but he keeps talking about South Carolina being very important to him. He's counting on what he considers the home folks - he was born here. And it is the only state he won in 2004. He talked about that a little bit on CBS this morning.
(Soundbite of John Edwards CBS Interview)
Mr. JOHN EDWARDS (Former Democratic Governor of North Carolina; Presidential Candidate): I'm now in South Carolina. I got my butt kicked in Nevada. What you learn from that is that - all of my life, when that's happened to me - you just got to get up and stand and start fighting.
ELLIOTT: Edwards did admit that, you know, the historical nature of this Democratic race with the first woman and the first African-American, considered to really have a shot. But it's sort of overshadowing his candidacy. But he said he was in it for the long haul and that he would be around come Super Tuesday.
SEABROOK: NPR's Debbie Elliott in Columbia, South Carolina.
Thanks very much, Debbie.
ELLIOTT: My pleasure.