ROBERT SIEGEL, host:
This is ALL THINGS CONSIDERED from NPR News. I'm Robert Siegel.
MELISSA BLOCK, host:
I'm Melissa Block.
And we're going to begin this hour in South Carolina where Republicans will cast their primary votes tomorrow. Polls put John McCain in the lead, but we know the story with the polls this year. And Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee are doing their best to bring in conservative voters.
Our co-host Michele Norris has been in South Carolina all week. She joins us now. And Michele, South Carolina is famous for political surprises. How does it look now?
MICHELE NORRIS: Well, the surprise this year is that even people who've closely watched this - the most experienced political hands will tell you with complete honesty, they have no idea who is going to win this race.
Mike Huckabee roared out of Iowa with a big win. He faltered a bid in New Hampshire where he had a hard time reaching beyond his evangelical base. Here in South Carolina, evangelicals account for more than half of our Republican voters, and that values-based message that he's really been pounding is very, very potent here.
John McCain on the other hand seems to be having a much harder time winning support from those values voters, at least according to the latest polls. He is, however, finding a very welcome reception from the large pool of veterans in the state and families who have connections to the military. Also, he's sort of the establishment candidate. A lot of the elected officials - Republican elected officials seem to be supporting his campaign.
We went to a McCain rally this week. We had a chance to talk to some of the voters and we heard something interesting. People who have said they didn't support the senator back in 2000 are now supporting him this year. They say that times have changed. We, for instance, met a 69-year-old Columbia resident named Frank Glen(ph). And Mr. Glen said the most important concerns for him right now were security and the fear of another terrorist attack. And let's listen to what he had to say about John McCain this year.
Mr. FRANK GLEN (Resident, Columbia, South Carolina): I voted for Bush. I don't think McCain could have won at the time, but I think he can win now. We got a war now. Well, he's a big veteran. And I'm a veteran, Air Force. So, I think he's the man for the job right now.
NORRIS: Melissa, that phrase, he's the right man for the job right now is pretty close to McCain's core message.
I have this McCain flier in my hand right now and on the cover next to a very serious picture of him are the words, we know he's courageous, bold, ready to lead. But, as you open the cover it says, here's something you may not know. And when you open it up it says, John McCain best bet to beat Hillary.
BLOCK: So it sounds like John McCain's addressing experience, his readiness to lead as you say. What's the message from Mike Huckabee?
NORRIS: Well, Mike Huckabee, also, I should say, talks about national security issues. He's calling for what he says is a Billy Jack approach to National Security. Mess with America, and he says, you'll find the heel of this boot in your face. But his primary focus is really on values; writing the chorus in America, as he says. And his crowd is very, very different. You see more middle income, even lower-income families, a lot of Christians, a lot of people who talk about their Christian values. A lot of homeschoolers, that crowd really helped him in Iowa.
I met a group of 30-something women at his rally. They'd come together. They'd heard about Mike Huckabee. They liked what they'd heard, but they wanted to hear him in person. And I spoke with a woman named Sally Pasketti(ph), and she told me that it was Mike Huckabee's values, his personality, his charm, that she found appealing.
Ms. SALLY PASKETTI: The thing that they're saying about Huckabee is he is the one who can communicate a vision. You know, I get around listening to Huckabee and I leave - I'm feeling like I'm part of that team. I'm inspired.
BLOCK: You know, Michele, as we head in to this Republican primary tomorrow, we keep hearing this that since 1980, no Republican candidate has won the Republican nomination without first winning in South Carolina.
NORRIS: And I hear that a lot down here too. They're very proud of that. Its position is like sort of gatekeeper to the Republican nomination.
However, there are worries about that now. I spent some time with Lin Bennett. She's the chairwoman of the Charleston County Republican Party. And she tells me that everyone now realizes that it's possible that things may change.
Ms. LIN BENNETT (Chairwoman, Charleston County Republican Party): It could be, but I hope not. I think what will actually happen is that South Carolina might lose its place as a person that makes that determination.
NORRIS: You're worried about that?
Ms. BENNETT: Well, as a South Carolinian, yes, I am. We're very proud of the part that we play in the process.
NORRIS: Lin Bennett also noted one possible other change here. She says the state is not expecting the kind of record turnout or at least very large turnout that you saw in Iowa and in New Hampshire. And the weather forecast is probably not helping that, Melissa. Heavy rain is forecast here for Saturday.
BLOCK: Hmm. So that could have an effect. Now there's a split primary. There are Republicans to vote tomorrow, Democrats don't vote until next Saturday. What's happening on the Democratic side in South Carolina?
NORRIS: Well, polls show that Barack Obama has opened up his lead against Hillary Clinton. It's about an eight-point lead at this point. One of the things that's interesting is Barack Obama doesn't appear to have built the same kind of multi-ethnic coalition that we saw in Iowa and also in New Hampshire. He's built strong support among African-Americans. He's in clear lead there but he ranks third behind Hillary Clinton and John Edwards in terms of support from white voters, at least in this latest poll.
And once again we're seeing - you know, we have to be careful in talking about these polls because so many voters are still undecided. Almost half of all Democratic voters have yet to make up their mind. And we should say that the Democratic contest has been fairly muted this week. The candidates have been spending most of their time focusing on the contest in Nevada, and that will change starting this weekend. The candidates will be heading back this way. And heading back this way along with them is this long list, almost a galaxy of stars from Hollywood that are coming out here to stump for the candidates.
With the list of stars that's headed in this way, it almost seems like South Carolina may start to look a bit like Southern California, Melissa.
BLOCK: Okay. Michele thanks so much.
NORRIS: Thank you.
BLOCK: That's our co-host Michele Norris in Columbia, South Carolina.